If France’s 2022 presidential election were held today, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen would easily defeat President Emmanuel Macron, according to a poll released on Wednesday. Macron is currently facing public outrage over his efforts to raise the retirement age for the majority of French workers.
According to the BFMTV poll, Le Pen would win the first round of voting with 31% of the vote, followed by Macron with 23% and leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon with 18.5%. This would be an eight-point improvement for the National Rally leader, who finished the first round with 23% to Macron’s 28% last year.
If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round, the election is held in two rounds, with the top two candidates from the first round advancing. This has always been the case under the Fifth Republic, and in the 2022 runoff, Macron defeated Le Pen by 59% to 41%.
According to the poll, Le Pen would defeat Macron today by 55% to 45%. While Macron relied on Republican, Green, and some leftist votes to win the second round last year, far fewer of these voters would support him now. For example, while 68% of supporters of Green candidate Yannick Jadot voted for Macron in the second round last year, only 52% would do so today.
Furthermore, the poll found that 27% of Macron’s voters in 2022 would either abstain or vote for Le Pen if the election were rerun.
Last month, Macron’s government used special constitutional powers to pass a contentious pension reform bill without a parliamentary vote. The bill raised the retirement age for the majority of French workers from 62 to 64, sparking a nationwide wave of protests and riots. More than a million people took to the streets across the country in the largest demonstration, and hundreds were arrested in Paris in a single day for lighting fires and clashing with police officers.
Raising the retirement age has long been one of Macron’s top priorities, with the president calling it a “just and responsible” way to keep France’s social security system afloat. Le Pen, best known for her anti-Islamic immigration stance, has focused her 2022 campaign on opposing pension reforms and blaming Macron for France’s rising cost of living.
Le Pen has maintained her opposition to the reforms while condemning some protesters’ vandalism. France, she told AFP last week, “has been governed against its will.” The way [Macron] is ruling will allow political forces with opposing views to gain power.”
