Bola Tinubu, the president-elect, was elected in a hotly contested presidential election and is set to be sworn in as Nigeria’s 16th president, gistpeople reports
Despite several polls conducted by various organizations, the former Lagos State governor emerged victorious. In addition, the naira redesigning policy nearly derailed his presidential ambition at the last minute, but barring any court ruling, he will be sworn in as president on May 29.
In this piece, gistpeople will examine the five major factors that enabled him to triumph against all odds.
A splintered opposition
Tinubu faced a fractured opposition in the election. In 2019, Abubakar Atiku, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso all worked together in the PDP but were defeated by Muhammadu Buhari’s force.
Despite the defeat, the PDP maintained its stronghold in the Southeast and Southsouth, while also performing well in the Southwest and Northcentral.
Instead, the APC faced Obi in the Labour Party, Kwankwaso in the NNPP, and Atiku in the PDP on Saturday. Furthermore, some G5 governors were suspected of working for the ruling party.
At the end of the election, Kwankwaso retained Kano, Obi retained Southeast and Southsouth, and Atiku performed well in the North; however, their individual performances were disappointing.
Northcentral stepped in to help.
Several polls conducted prior to the election predicted that the Labour Party’s candidate would win Northcentral, but the ruling party surprised the region by winning four states, including Benue State.
Kwara, Kogi, Niger, and Benue were all won by the party. It should be noted that no one has ever won the presidency without first winning the Northcentral.
Second place is a good place to be.
Another factor that aided the ruling party was its ability to secure second place in the worst-case scenario.
For example, the NNPP won Kano State by a large margin, but the margin between Tinubu and Atiku was over 380,000 votes. Given that Atiku was the main challenger to Tinubu in the Northwest, second place was adequate.
Winning your stronghold is important in a four-horse race, but so is how you perform in your opponent’s territory.
Tinubu was defeated by Atiku in Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi states in the Northwest.
He was also able to maintain second place in Plateau, Akwa-Ibom, and Nasarawa.
Solid Partners
Tinubu’s victory in Benue State may be attributed to the influence of Father Hyacinth Alia, the APC governorship candidate in the state.
Aliyu Wamakko ensured that the Director General of the Atiku Campaign, Governor Aminu Tambuwal, was unable to deliver Sokoto to Atiku by a wide margin in Sokoto State.
In Katsina, President Muhammadu Buhari was forced to show his ballot to voters in order to instruct them on how to vote.
The presence of Godswill Akpabio in Akwa-Ibom helped to secure the second position, while Governor Nyesom Wike accomplished the seemingly impossible—the APC won in Rivers State for the first time.
Atiku’s poor performance in the South
During the campaign, some supporters of the former Vice President boasted about receiving 11 million votes. What they didn’t realize was that the majority of it came from the south.
In contrast to the 2019 election, Atiku did poorly in the South and Northcentral.
He failed to win a single state in Northcentral and only three out of 17 in the south—Osun, Akwa-Ibom, and Bayelsa.
Even his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa, lost his home state of Delta State.
All of these factors contributed to Tinubu’s election victory.
